In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, former President Donald Trump emerged victorious over Vice President Kamala Harris, marking a significant shift in the political landscape. Trump’s win was influenced by several strategic factors and demographic shifts, as well as challenges Harris faced in breaking away from the unpopular Biden administration.
Key Factors Leading to Trump’s Victory
- Voter Sentiment on Economic and Social Issues Voters were discontented with ongoing economic pressures, especially related to inflation, housing affordability, and immigration. Despite some improvements in employment and wages, many Americans felt burdened by persistent high prices for essential goods and services, which they attributed to the Biden administration. Although Vice President Harris led in handling issues like abortion rights, these concerns took a back seat to the broader economic unease. Trump capitalized on this sentiment, framing himself as a solution to these issues and positioning Harris as an extension of Biden’s perceived economic failures.
- Demographic Shifts and the Gender Divide Trump’s success relied heavily on a targeted approach to expand his base, particularly among men and specific minority groups. His team identified younger male voters, including Black and Hispanic men, as a crucial demographic, many of whom felt left behind or alienated by current policies. According to NPR’s exit polling, Trump garnered a historic 46% of the Latino vote, largely driven by male voters, and achieved high support among white voters, who increased as a share of the electorate for the first time in decades.
- Strategic Campaign Decisions Trump’s campaign was more disciplined compared to his previous runs, with his team prioritizing resources on high-yield outreach. Instead of traditional campaign events, Trump frequently engaged with influential male-centric media, such as podcasts hosted by figures like Joe Rogan. These appearances appealed to his target demographic of younger men, who were less likely to tune into mainstream media. His team also refrained from extensive spending on a traditional ground game, opting instead for a volunteer-led approach supported by super PACs, which helped them reallocate funds for a robust final ad blitz.
- Messaging and Image Strategy Trump’s campaign crafted a hypermasculine image, often portraying him as resilient and unapologetic. After his criminal conviction and facing numerous legal challenges, he leveraged these issues as symbols of his resilience. Images of Trump after an assassination attempt became a rallying symbol, and his mug shot turned into a best-selling image, reinforcing his image as a “folk hero.” This strategy resonated with voters who felt a deep-seated anger toward the political establishment, viewing Trump as a representative of their grievances.
- Targeted Use of Controversial Ads A series of provocative ads helped Trump’s campaign solidify support among conservatives. For instance, one ad attacked Harris for supporting taxpayer-funded surgeries for transgender inmates, framing her as radically liberal and out of touch with mainstream values. This ad, with the tagline “Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you,” became one of the campaign’s most effective tools, resonating with suburban women, Black and Latino men, and moderates who were concerned about social issues. These ads not only drew attention but were carefully crafted to underscore Harris’s vulnerability as being “dangerously liberal,” which her team had worried about from the beginning.
Challenges Faced by Kamala Harris
- Association with President Biden Harris’s campaign struggled with her close association to Biden’s presidency. Biden’s approval rating stood at a low 40%, and she could not fully break away from his policies. Many voters saw her as a continuation of Biden’s approach, particularly on economic issues, even though she attempted to pivot to a populist message focused on lowering prices for everyday people. However, this strategy did not resonate enough to offset Trump’s gains, as voters continued to link her to the current administration’s perceived failures.
- Internal Campaign Struggles and Mixed Messaging Harris’s campaign was marred by internal disagreements and indecision on how to handle Trump’s tactics. Her team debated whether to challenge Trump more aggressively or to stay cautious, and this inconsistency weakened her campaign’s message. Her limited presence in media and cautious public approach also prevented her from building a strong, distinctive image in voters’ minds. At times, her team’s choices, such as declining an appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast, were criticized as missed opportunities to reach wider audiences.
- Limited Time and Infrastructure Challenges Harris’s late entry into the race after Biden’s decision to step down left her with only around three months to mount a nationwide campaign. This limited time meant her team had to quickly scale up operations, which made it challenging to establish a robust campaign presence in key battleground states. Although her team invested in setting up campaign offices and hiring staff, the rushed nature of the effort led to difficulties in executing a cohesive strategy across states.
- Efforts to Appeal to Both Moderates and Democrats Harris’s campaign initially tried to court anti-Trump Republicans, even bringing figures like billionaire Mark Cuban into the fold. This strategy aimed to appeal to moderates but backfired in some circles, as many traditional Democrats felt alienated. While Harris’s team invested heavily in mobilizing women voters, who turned out in higher numbers than in previous elections, this support wasn’t enough to counterbalance Trump’s gains among men across different age and ethnic groups.
- Gender-Related Challenges Harris’s campaign also faced challenges related to her role as the first woman nominee for a major party in a general election. Some analysts pointed to a persistent gender divide, as men and women often viewed her candidacy through different lenses. While many women appreciated her moderate stance on key issues, a large portion of male voters doubted her sincerity and expressed skepticism about her ability to lead, highlighting a societal barrier that continues to impact female candidates for high office.
Conclusion
Trump’s victory in the 2024 election underscored deep-seated concerns in the American electorate and highlighted the powerful role that strategic campaigning and targeted messaging can play. His campaign’s emphasis on masculinity, economic grievances, and divisive social issues resonated with voters, while Harris’s inability to escape her connection to Biden and a cautious campaign strategy hindered her ability to gain traction.
This article is based on the following articles:
https://www.npr.org/2024/11/08/g-s1-33274/2024-election-how-trump-won-takeaways
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/us/politics/trump-win-election-harris.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/how-trump-won-harris-lost-2024-election-rcna178840
Background Information
Understanding the U.S. Presidential Election System
1. The Role of the President and How Elections Work
The President of the United States is the head of the executive branch of the government and is responsible for enforcing laws, commanding the military, and setting foreign policy, among other duties. Every four years, Americans vote to elect a new president or re-elect the current one. The election includes two main candidates from the two largest political parties, but sometimes smaller parties and independent candidates also run.
2. The Electoral College
In the U.S., the president is not elected by direct popular vote (the total number of votes from people) but rather by the Electoral College, a system that gives each state a certain number of “electors” based on its population. Most states award all their electors to the candidate who wins the most votes in that state. A candidate needs a majority of electoral votes (at least 270 out of 538) to win the presidency.
The Political Parties
1. Democratic and Republican Parties
The Democratic Party and the Republican Party are the two major political parties in the U.S.:
- Democrats often support policies to expand government programs for healthcare, education, and climate change. They typically favor higher taxes on the wealthy and big businesses to fund these programs.
- Republicans usually advocate for lower taxes, a smaller government, and policies that emphasize business growth and personal responsibility. They often push for a strong national defense and traditional values.
Key Political and Economic Terms
1. Inflation and Economic Challenges
- Inflation means an increase in prices over time, which can make everyday items more expensive for people. This can create frustration, especially if wages (income) don’t increase at the same rate, making it harder for families to afford goods and services.
- The Federal Reserve (or “the Fed”) is the central bank in the U.S. It controls interest rates, which affect how much it costs to borrow money. When inflation is high, the Fed raises interest rates to slow it down, but this can also make loans for things like homes and cars more expensive.
2. Social and Economic Policies
- Social Policy deals with issues that affect people’s well-being, such as education, healthcare, housing, and sometimes controversial topics like gender rights and abortion.
- Economic Policy refers to decisions on taxes, government spending, and other financial areas that impact the economy as a whole. Different parties have various beliefs about what policies help the economy grow.
Recent Important Events
1. COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact
The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in 2019, was a global health crisis that affected the economy, employment, and daily life. It created major challenges for governments around the world, including the U.S. President Biden and Vice President Harris were leading the country’s response as of 2021, but handling the aftermath has been challenging for any leader. Issues like inflation and high prices were partly blamed on disruptions caused by the pandemic.
2. Immigration Concerns
Immigration has been a significant issue in U.S. politics, especially concerning how to handle people entering the country, both legally and illegally. Different parties have different views on immigration policies. The Republican Party often emphasizes strong border security, while the Democratic Party generally supports finding ways for immigrants to legally remain in the U.S. if they have established lives here.
Social Issues in the Election
1. Gender and Voting Trends
Gender has played an important role in recent elections, with trends showing that women often vote differently from men. Candidates may try to appeal to specific groups, such as young men or suburban women, with different messages and policies that address what these groups care about most.
2. Abortion Rights
Abortion is a highly debated topic in the U.S., especially after the Supreme Court’s decision in 2022 to overturn Roe v. Wade, which had protected the right to abortion for decades. This decision allowed individual states to decide whether abortion would be legal. The issue of abortion rights was particularly important to many voters, especially women, in the 2024 election.
3. LGBTQ+ Rights and Gender Identity
The rights of LGBTQ+ individuals, especially regarding gender identity, have become a central topic in politics. Some candidates emphasize protecting traditional values, while others advocate for equal rights for LGBTQ+ people, including healthcare access and protections in the workplace.
Campaign Strategies
1. Political Campaigns and Advertising
Political campaigns use different methods to reach voters, such as advertisements, debates, social media, and direct mail. Ads are often designed to highlight a candidate’s strengths or criticize their opponent. Candidates might also appear on popular shows or in interviews to reach more people, especially younger voters.
2. Media and Public Relations
Media plays a big role in elections. Campaigns often use media like TV, newspapers, and social platforms to communicate their messages. In recent elections, podcasts and online shows have become popular ways for candidates to reach young voters.
3. Fundraising
Presidential campaigns require a lot of money for travel, ads, staff, and events. Candidates often raise money through donations from individuals and groups. In some cases, wealthy individuals or companies may contribute large amounts to support campaigns through super PACs (Political Action Committees).
Historical Context
1. Previous Trump Presidency and Its Aftermath
Donald Trump served as president from 2017 to 2021. His term was marked by a series of controversies and policies that drew strong reactions from both supporters and opponents. His handling of issues like immigration, trade, and the COVID-19 pandemic created a divided public opinion. Although he lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden, he remained influential in American politics and continued to gather support from a loyal base.
2. The Role of the Vice President
The Vice President is the second-highest position in the executive branch and is a key advisor to the President. Kamala Harris became the first female, Black, and South Asian Vice President when she took office in 2021. She was later chosen as the Democratic candidate for president in 2024 after Biden’s decision to step down.
Key Takeaways
- Political Parties shape the views and policies that candidates propose to solve issues, and different parties prioritize different solutions.
- Economic Issues like inflation and housing costs directly affect people’s daily lives and are often a deciding factor for voters.
- Social Policies on topics like immigration, abortion, and gender identity reflect the changing beliefs in society and influence how people vote.
- Campaign Strategies like targeted ads and media appearances help candidates reach specific groups of voters who might be undecided or supportive.
- Historical Context helps explain why candidates have certain levels of support or face particular challenges, such as Trump’s previous presidency or Harris’s association with the Biden administration.
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